WS #7580

The dominant narrative remains the Iran crisis, which is ESCALATING. Trump issued a direct threat to Iran, warning there 'won't be anything left' if it fails to move fast on a deal. This was corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Benzinga, Bluesky). The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to reroute global oil supply, with WTI crude at $114.58 and diesel prices breaking $6/gallon in parts of the US. The US is now shipping oil to Australia as a result. A counter-signal emerged: the US and China brokered a $17B annual agricultural trade deal after the Trump-Xi meeting, which also includes preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This deal could dampen some trade war fears and provide a diplomatic off-ramp for the Iran situation. Additionally, Canada cleared a path for a West Coast oil pipeline, which could alleviate some supply constraints long-term. On the domestic front, an active shooter situation in Austin, Texas prompted a shelter-in-place order, but this is unlikely to have broad market impact. Other noise includes a Life360 buyback, Bain Capital's Asia fund, and various sports betting markets.