WS #7582

The dominant Iran crisis narrative continues with no material change in the last 30 minutes. No new developments, counter-signals, or de-escalation signals have emerged. The situation remains stable at an elevated level of tension. The data dump is dominated by noise: sports betting, weather predictions, and routine news. The only notable items are a Bloomberg report that NextEra is in talks to acquire Dominion Energy for about $76 per share, and a separate report that U.S. upstream mergers hit $38 billion in Q1 2026. These are isolated signals with no cross-source corroboration in this window. The Iran-related Polymarket questions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz traffic, Kharg Island control) continue to trade, but no new information has surfaced to shift probabilities. The overall narrative arc is STABLE — the Iran crisis remains the key macro driver, but this window provides no new data points to escalate or de-escalate the thesis.