WS #7589

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia energy infrastructure war, with multiple sources corroborating a massive Ukrainian drone attack that struck oil refineries in Moscow and Yaroslavl. This directly supports the ongoing oil price rally (WTI +1.8% to $107.26, Brent +1.1% to $110.47) and reinforces the bullish energy thesis. The Iran-US war remains in stalemate with Trump warning Iran 'time is of the essence,' and Strait of Hormuz traffic remains ~90% down, sustaining elevated oil prices. Stock futures are slightly lower (Dow -0.2%, S&P/Nasdaq flat) as oil and yields weigh, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting a one-year high. The narrative is ESCALATING on the Ukraine-Russia energy war, which continues to support oil and defense stocks. A potential Lebanon-Israel ceasefire (Aoun says ceasefire at midnight) is a counter-signal that could dampen geopolitical risk premium in the region, but its impact on oil is limited given the Iran situation dominates. The NextEra-Dominion $66B deal and Arm antitrust probe are rehashed from prior windows and not new. Nvidia earnings (Wednesday) and retail earnings (Walmart Thursday, Target Wednesday) are upcoming catalysts but not yet actionable.