WS #7593

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Iran war and its impact on oil markets, with Brent crude at $110.67 (+1.5%) and WTI at $102.29 (+1.26%) as the US and Iran remain deadlocked over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, Financial Post, OilPrice.com) corroborate the oil price extension and the lack of diplomatic progress. The Ukraine-Russia drone war also escalates, with a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow killing at least three and targeting an oil refinery, while Dnipro and other regions face Shahed drone attacks. Separately, a drone strike at the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant is reported, though this appears to be a re-report of earlier news. The Trump administration's pledge to refill the SPR with bonus barrels acts as a counter-signal, dampening some bullish oil thesis by signaling future supply. Gold holds a decline as inflation fears persist. The prevailing macro theme is ESCALATING geopolitical risk, particularly around energy infrastructure, which is bullish for energy stocks and bearish for risk assets and airlines. No new data on the Lebanon-Israel front beyond a report of five killed in Lebanon following a ceasefire extension. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Iran/Strait of Hormuz deadlock and the Ukraine drone war.