WS #7607

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing escalation of US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources corroborating that Trump issued a new ultimatum to Iran ('the clock is ticking') and that European markets are expected to open lower on Monday as a result. Oil prices rose >1% overnight (Brent ~$111, WTI ~$108). The Iran war has now saddled global companies with a $25 billion bill, per Investing.com. A separate FT report notes that US and Iran remain far apart on a deal. This narrative is ESCALATING. Separately, China's economic slowdown deepened sharply in April (retail sales +0.2% YoY, factory output tumbling), which is a bearish signal for global growth and commodity demand. On the AI/tech front, Anthropic will brief the Financial Stability Board on its Mythos model's cyber vulnerabilities, a medium-significance development for AI/cybersecurity sectors. The SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual on Hyperliquid drove HYPE +7%, a crypto-specific signal. Ryanair's CEO stated fuel suppliers expect no disruption through mid-July, which counters some of the bearish airline thesis from oil spike. The Warsh/Trimmed Mean PCE discussion on Reddit could be a precursor to a Fed pivot, but remains noise-level for now.