WS #7630

The dominant narrative remains ESCALATING geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with fresh corroboration of supply disruption fears. Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops and fighter jets to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact, while Saudi Arabia directly blames Iraq for a drone strike near the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant. The IDF is evacuating villages in southern Lebanon, and Ukrainian drones struck a Moscow oil refinery, causing fires. Oil futures turned positive in volatile trade as supply disruption worries offset economic concerns. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has removed 782 million barrels from global supply since Feb 28, with IEA warning of a 3.9 million bpd output drop and commercial inventories approaching stress levels by June. Separately, Adani Enterprises settled with the US Treasury for $275 million over alleged Iran sanctions violations. Trump's approval rating fell to 37% (lowest of second term), with nearly two-thirds of voters saying the Iran war was the wrong call. On the tech side, NVDA earnings loom on May 20, with options flow showing a massive $331.8M bullish SPXW call position and a dark pool alert for $146.39M in QQQ. Corning shares fell after Appaloosa Management cut its stake by one-third. The macro theme is ESCALATING, with oil supply disruption fears intensifying and inflation worries pushing bond yields higher.