WS #7651

The dominant signal in this window is the de-escalation of US-Iran military tensions. Trump announced he is postponing a planned attack on Iran, citing requests from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, while instructing the military to be ready on a moment's notice if a deal is not reached. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Alpaca, Reuters, multiple Bluesky posts) and represents a significant de-escalation from the prior narrative of imminent military action. The counter-signal is that air defenses were activated on Iran's Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz, indicating continued volatility. Separately, Meta plans to conduct layoffs on May 20 in three batches globally, moving 7,000 people to AI initiatives, per Reuters exclusive. This is a major corporate restructuring signal for META. The NextEra-Dominion Energy merger to create the world's largest electric utility is confirmed by multiple sources (Oilprice, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg), bullish for clean energy and utility infrastructure. The jury verdict in Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI (ruling against Musk) is confirmed by multiple outlets (MarketWatch, Sky News, The Verge), removing a legal overhang for OpenAI but potentially weighing on Tesla sentiment. Kevin Warsh is scheduled to be sworn in as Fed chair at the White House on Friday, a significant monetary policy transition. Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner warns of risk of flow unwind in US stocks, a bearish signal for indices. The IEA warning of rapidly declining oil inventories and potential $180/barrel oil reinforces the energy supply crisis narrative, but the postponement of the Iran attack may partially offset oil price spikes.