WS #7687

The dominant narrative in this window is a sharp de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with multiple sources corroborating that Trump called off planned military attacks on Iran and that serious negotiations are underway. This is a significant counter-signal to the prior war-risk premium that had driven oil prices above $112. Brent crude slumped from $112 to $109 on the news, and reports of a potential temporary waiver on Iranian oil sanctions further pressured oil. The de-escalation theme is reinforced by Al Jazeera analysis suggesting Trump's ultimatums betray lack of leverage. Separately, Treasury Secretary Bessent issued a 30-day Russian oil license to stabilize crude markets, which could further ease supply fears. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine launched 1,300 drones hitting Moscow-area oil refineries, escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict but this is secondary to the Iran de-escalation. In corporate news, Adani Group agreed to pay $275M to settle US sanctions probe, removing a major legal overhang. The RBA flagged a potential pause after 75 bps of rate hikes, which is dovish for AUD but limited US market impact. Overall, the oil price slump is the most actionable signal, with bearish implications for energy stocks and bullish for airlines and consumer discretionary.