WS #7709

The dominant narrative remains the Iran conflict and energy supply squeeze, but this window introduces a significant de-escalation signal: Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, citing requests from Gulf allies for serious negotiations. This counter-signal dampens the bearish energy/index thesis, though the situation remains fluid. Separately, the US extended a 30-day sanctions waiver on Russian oil to stabilize markets, and Bessent urged G7 to help target Iran's finances. The 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.182%, the highest since 2007, pressuring equities. S&P 500 fell for a third straight day as tech stocks remained under strain ahead of Nvidia earnings. A former OpenAI researcher's hedge fund is betting against NVDA and AI chip stocks. Meta is cutting 8,000 jobs and 6,000 open roles while committing $145B to AI investment. Canada CPI came in at 2.8% in April, above expectations. Putin is arriving in Beijing for a state visit, underscoring China-Russia ties. Polymarket shows continued interest in Iran asset freeze and Strait of Hormuz transit questions. Key developments include: (1) Trump cancels Iran strike after Gulf allies request negotiations — a high-significance de-escalation counter-signal that dampens the bearish energy/index thesis; (2) 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.18%, highest in nearly 19 years, pressuring equities; (3) Bessent exclusive: US not in hurry to extend China trade truce, but also signals potential $30B tariff reduction on non-critical goods — mixed signals for trade-sensitive sectors; (4) Nvidia earnings tomorrow — HSBC raises PT to $325, but a former OpenAI researcher's hedge fund is betting against NVDA and AI chip stocks; (5) Meta cutting 8,000 jobs and 6,000 open roles while committing $145B to AI investment — bullish for AI infrastructure, bearish for tech employment; (6) NATO considering Hormuz deployment to protect ships — escalation of energy supply risk; (7) Iran's floating oil stockpile jumps 65% as US naval blockade bites — bullish for oil prices; (8) US pending home sales rise 1.4% MoM vs 1.0% est — positive for housing sector.