WS #7761

The dominant signal in this window is the U.S. Senate advancing a War Powers Resolution aimed at ending the Iran conflict, with multiple sources (AP, Al Jazeera, NBC, NYT, Bloomberg, and several Bluesky posts) corroborating the development. This marks a significant escalation in congressional pushback against the administration's Iran policy, with GOP Senator Bill Cassidy flipping to support after his primary loss. The resolution's advancement could dampen geopolitical risk premiums, particularly in oil and defense sectors, though the House path remains uncertain. Separately, the Kentucky GOP Senate primary saw Trump-endorsed Andy Barr win the nomination to replace Mitch McConnell, a development with limited direct market impact but notable for political alignment. On the macro front, U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 9.1 million barrels per API, a bullish signal for oil prices, while a Bloomberg report on a crucial Japan bond sale testing markets amid a global selloff adds to fixed-income concerns. The Israel-Lebanon conflict continues with airstrikes killing 19, but this is an ongoing theme without new escalation. NVDA earnings are tomorrow, with a bearish social media post warning of a 'flush back to $180' if a beat is priced in, but this is single-source opinion. Overall, the Iran War Powers vote is the highest-signal development, potentially reducing tail risk for equities and oil.