WS #7766

The dominant signal in this window is the US Senate advancing a War Powers Resolution to curb Trump's authority to wage war on Iran, passing a procedural vote 50-47. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, AP, Bluesky posts) and represents a de-escalation signal for geopolitical risk, dampening the prevailing bearish thesis on oil and defense stocks. Separately, the CFTC is investigating a surge in oil futures trading that occurred moments before Trump postponed strikes on Iran in March (WSJ via Bluesky), adding regulatory scrutiny to oil markets. China's LPR rates were held steady (1Y at 3.00%, 5Y at 3.50%), as expected, providing no new stimulus signal. The Kentucky Republican primary saw Trump-backed Ed Gallrein defeat incumbent Thomas Massie, consolidating Trump's influence. Israeli airstrikes killed 19 in southern Lebanon, threatening the fragile ceasefire. Home Depot reported mixed Q1 results: sales +4.8% YoY but margins compressed. Insider sales were reported for KO (Nancy sold 31,625 shares), NET (CFO sold 10,000 shares), and CRWD (director filed intent to sell 20,000 shares). The prevailing macro narrative of rising bond yields and Iran tensions is STABLE, but the Senate resolution and CFTC probe are new counter-signals that dampen bearish geopolitical and oil theses.