WS #7779

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of the Iran Strait of Hormuz crisis, corroborated by multiple sources. Two Chinese supertankers (Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily) carrying ~4 million barrels of crude have exited the Strait, and a South Korean vessel is also passing through, as reported by Al Jazeera, Reuters, and Seeking Alpha. This physical movement of tankers is a strong counter-signal to the blockade narrative. Simultaneously, the EU has finally agreed to implement the US trade deal struck last summer, averting Trump's threatened tariffs, which is bullish for European equities and industrials. On the geopolitical front, the Russia-China summit continues with Putin and Xi reaffirming ties, but no new market-moving specifics emerged. The UK relaxed sanctions on Russian crude oil refined in third countries, a significant policy shift driven by fuel supply concerns from the Hormuz blockade. Additionally, Alibaba unveiled a new AI chip targeting Nvidia, and China added Nvidia's gaming chip to a banned list, escalating the tech war. The US Senate advanced a resolution to curb Trump's war powers on Iran, which dampens geopolitical risk premium. Overall, the Iran situation shows tangible de-escalation (tanker movement, diplomatic progress) but remains fragile with Trump's deadline.