WS #7783

The dominant narrative remains the uneasy Iran conflict stalemate, but several new developments have emerged. China banned Nvidia's gaming chip during Jensen Huang's visit, a direct escalation in US-China tech tensions that could pressure NVDA and the broader semiconductor sector. Separately, Ukrainian drones struck a Lukoil refinery in Russia, hitting a key processing unit, which could add to oil supply concerns. Indonesia surprised markets with a 0.5% rate hike to defend the rupiah, signaling emerging market stress. The Xi-Putin summit produced a 'multipolar world' declaration and 20 agreements, deepening the Sino-Russian axis and potentially complicating US geopolitical strategy. On the earnings front, RLX Technology reported a massive beat, and Nvidia heads into its earnings with the largest short position in the S&P 500, setting up high volatility. The ECB's Wunsch reiterated a June hike is 'quite likely' if the Iran war persists, reinforcing hawkish ECB expectations. Overall, the market is in a cautious wait-and-see mode ahead of Nvidia earnings, with geopolitical risks still elevated and new tech tensions emerging. In this window, the key signals are: (1) China confirms it will buy 200 Boeing planes, a major positive for BA and the aerospace sector, countering the US-China trade war narrative. (2) UK inflation slowed more than expected, causing gilts to rally and traders to trim BoE rate hike bets, a counter-signal to the hawkish global central bank theme. (3) Lowe's beat Q1 estimates and reaffirmed FY26 guidance, a positive for consumer discretionary and home improvement. (4) Iran threatens to extend conflict 'beyond the region' if US/Israel resume attacks, escalating geopolitical risk. (5) US Senate advanced an Iran War Powers Resolution requiring congressional approval for continued strikes, a potential de-escalation signal. (6) Rheinmetall prepares first public bond sale since 2010, signaling defense industry boom. (7) Indonesia takes control of strategic commodity exports, causing stock declines and adding to commodity supply uncertainty. (8) Russia's Novak says China interested in long-term oil supplies, reinforcing energy ties. (9) Nvidia targets raised ahead of earnings by multiple firms, with Cantor Fitzgerald setting a Street-high $350 target. (10) AMD gains on AI optimism with analysts lifting targets. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on Iran tensions and US-China tech, but with potential de-escalation signals from the Senate War Powers Resolution and China's Boeing order.