WS #7792

The dominant narrative in this window is the ongoing Iran war and its second-order effects on energy markets, inflation, and central bank policy. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with IRGC halting commercial shipping and rerouting vessels. This has driven Brent crude to $118/bbl and caused a surge in global LNG prices (JKM +51%, TTF +35% since Feb 28). The EIA reports that the U.S. has released 17.5 million barrels from the SPR since March as part of a coordinated IEA release. Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline reached maximum capacity of 7 million bpd, and the company reported a 26% profit jump. On the geopolitical front, there are cross-currents: a large Ukraine-Russia POW exchange (205 each) occurred, and a three-day ceasefire was announced but quickly violated. Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure, including a major fire at the Ryazan refinery. Meanwhile, the U.S. allowed its Russian oil sanctions waiver to expire again, and Russia's oil export revenue rose to $19.18 billion in April. Central banks are grappling with stagflation risks. The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% but faced three dissents from regional presidents who objected to the easing bias in the statement. The BoE also held at 3.75% (8-1 vote), with one member voting for a hike. ECB officials signaled a potential June rate hike. U.S. data showed core PCE at 3.2%, GDP growth of 2%, and consumer sentiment at a record low of 48.2. The labor market remains stable but cooling, with April payrolls of 115,000. In corporate news, a major shift in AI infrastructure spending is underway: Intel, AMD, and Micron shares surged as Wall Street sees a 'changing of the guard' from Nvidia to a broader set of AI beneficiaries. Micron hit $700 for the first time. CoreWeave and Datadog reported strong AI-driven results, while Cloudflare cut 1,100 jobs due to AI. Shake Shack and Planet Fitness cratered on weak guidance. Alibaba shares surged 7% on triple-digit AI revenue growth. The NextEra-Dominion $67B utility merger highlights the data center power demand theme. Finally, the SEC filing for SpaceX IPO could be public as soon as Wednesday, with potential $80B raise.