WS #7799

Multiple high-signal developments emerged in this window. First, a senior Trump administration official confirmed that former Cuban President Raul Castro has been indicted in the US, corroborated by Reuters and multiple sources. This marks a dramatic escalation in US-Cuba tensions and raises the probability of further sanctions or military action, as reflected in Polymarket activity on US-Cuba conflict. Second, Ukrainian drone strikes have hit 10 Russian refineries in May, shutting down 6, and cutting Russian oil exports by 20%. This is corroborated by Kyiv Post, Forbes, and multiple OSINT sources, and represents a significant escalation in the Ukraine conflict that directly tightens global oil supply. Third, the EIA reported a 7.9 million barrel crude inventory draw, continuing the trend of tightening US oil markets. Fourth, the UK government waived sanctions on diesel and jet fuel processed from Russian crude in third countries due to spiking fuel prices and jet fuel shortages, a counter-signal that partially offsets the oil supply crisis. Fifth, the White House confirmed it is in the 'final stages' of negotiations with Iran, which could de-escalate Middle East tensions and ease oil supply fears. Sixth, Intuit announced layoffs of 3,000 employees (17% of staff) to refocus on AI, while Meta begins 8,000 job cuts. These tech layoffs signal ongoing restructuring in the sector. Seventh, Nvidia earnings are imminent (Wednesday), acting as a major AI industry barometer. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on oil supply disruption and geopolitical risk, with partial counter-signals from UK sanctions waiver and Iran negotiations.