WS #7802

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation that the U.S. Department of Justice has indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro in connection with the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes, corroborated by multiple social media sources and BBC reporting on U.S. surveillance aircraft near Cuba. This marks a dramatic escalation in US-Cuba tensions, following the earlier oil blockade. Separately, Trump stated the U.S. is in the 'final stages' of Iran negotiations, which triggered a Treasuries rally and is a potential counter-signal to the prevailing geopolitical risk narrative. Oil is trading lower on reports of three supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's comments, with WTI crude down ~3.7%. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on US-Cuba tensions, with a partial de-escalation signal on US-Iran talks. Other notable signals include a $102.52M dark pool order in AMD, a $141.64M dark pool order in XLK, and a $62.52M bearish SPX options position, suggesting institutional positioning ahead of Nvidia earnings.