WS #7812

The dominant signal in this window is the US indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, which is a significant geopolitical escalation but has limited direct US market impact. Separately, OpenAI's IPO preparations continue to gain traction, with reports that confidential filing could come as soon as Friday, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are preparing materials. This is a high-significance development for tech and IPO markets. The Iran crisis narrative is showing mixed signals: while a new peace proposal triggered a tense Trump-Netanyahu call, Iran's parliament speaker says 'enemy' moves show they seek a new round of war, and an Israeli airstrike was reported in southern Lebanon. However, the prevailing macro narrative from the previous window—sharp de-escalation in Iran crisis driving oil down 5% and markets rebounding—is being challenged by these new escalatory signals. The Nvidia earnings event is imminent and remains a key catalyst for tech markets. Analog Devices reported strong earnings but the stock fell, suggesting profit-taking ahead of Nvidia. The S&P 500 rebounded ahead of Nvidia's print with oil sinking 5% on Iran truce hopes, but the new Iran-related tensions could reverse that move.