WS #7814

The dominant signal in this window is the release of the FOMC minutes from the April 28-29 meeting, which revealed a hawkish tilt: many policymakers would have preferred to remove the easing bias, a majority said some policy firming would become appropriate if inflation persists above 2%, and participants generally judged that elevated inflation and Middle East uncertainty could necessitate keeping the current stance for longer. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Alpaca News, Reuters via Bluesky). The minutes also noted that a few participants saw rate cuts later this year if the conflict resolves and inflation dissipates, but the overall tone is hawkish. Separately, a new Iran peace proposal brokered by Qatar and Pakistan triggered a tense Trump-Netanyahu call (Axios, Bluesky), and European stocks climbed on oil price declines on Iran deal hopes (Bloomberg via Bluesky). The US DOJ indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro for the 1996 downing of civilian planes (multiple sources), but this is unlikely to have direct market impact. Oil prices are sharply lower (WTI -6.79%, Brent -6.49%) on the Iran deal hopes, which is a counter-signal to the prevailing oil supply crisis narrative. The UAE pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is 50% complete (CNBC, Bluesky), which could structurally reduce the risk premium on oil over time. Meta began laying off 8,000 employees, with Zuckerberg saying 'success isn't a given' (CNBC). PepsiCo is planning to raise prices on smaller chip bags (Bloomberg). Nvidia earnings are due after the close, with historical data showing the stock fell on 4 of the last 5 beats (Alpaca News).