WS #7860

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the AI/tech IPO narrative, with SpaceX filing for a $2 trillion IPO on Nasdaq (ticker SPCX) and OpenAI targeting a $1 trillion valuation for its IPO, corroborated by multiple sources. Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue of $81.6B (+85% YoY) and net income of $58.3B, but the stock slipped post-earnings as the market priced in high expectations and concerns about AI infrastructure competition from Google's TPU and custom chips. Tesla announced FSD Supervised is available in China, a bullish catalyst for TSLA. On the macro front, European PMI data disappointed: German Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 (below 51 consensus), French Manufacturing PMI slumped to 48.9 (from 52.8), and French Services PMI contracted sharply, signaling recession risks in the Eurozone. The US-Iran conflict shows tentative de-escalation signals: Iran is reviewing the latest US response via Pakistan, and Pakistan's army chief is traveling to Tehran for talks. Oil prices retreated 5% on truce hopes, with WTI below $100. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains contested as Iran creates a 'supervision area' requiring vessel permits. The UAE bypass pipeline is 50% complete, a structural counter to the blockade. JPMorgan's Dimon warned rates could go much higher, a hawkish signal for financials. Meta began layoffs of 8,000 employees (10% of workforce) to fund AI investments, a bearish signal for META but bullish for AI infrastructure. AvalonBay and Equity Residential are near a mega-REIT merger, a bullish signal for the REIT sector. Ubisoft shares plunged 18% on profit warning, a bearish signal for the gaming sector. The narrative arc is: AI IPO frenzy is ESCALATING, European macro is DE-ESCALATING (worsening), US-Iran conflict is STABLE with tentative de-escalation, and oil is STABLE but elevated.