WS #7874

The dominant macro theme remains the Iran war and its impact on energy markets, with oil prices surging (WTI +4%, Brent +3.5%) as Iran steps up claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, creating a new 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' that demands coordination for transit. This is corroborated by BBC, Al Jazeera, and multiple financial sources. The UK and US have eased Russian oil sanctions to alleviate supply pressures, a counter-signal that partially offsets the bullish oil thesis. Separately, the Ebola outbreak in DRC is escalating (500+ suspected cases, 139 deaths), causing an Air France flight diversion and the postponement of the India-Africa summit, adding a new layer of geopolitical risk. On the corporate front, Nvidia reported strong earnings (85% revenue jump) but shares are only modestly higher, while SpaceX's IPO filing and OpenAI's expected filing are drawing capital away from crypto. Walmart fell 6.5% on consumer pressure warnings, a bearish signal for retail. The Fed's incoming chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure from bond vigilantes, with the 30-year yield above 5% and a 42% chance of a rate hike priced in. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Iran/Hormuz crisis and the Ebola outbreak, while the Fed policy outlook is STABLE but with hawkish risks.