WS #7887

The dominant theme in this window is escalating geopolitical risk around Iran and oil supply, partially countered by Trump's de-escalatory comments on Strait of Hormuz tolls. Trump stated the US does not want tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, a counter-signal to the oil bullish thesis, but this is offset by IEA warnings that oil markets are nearing a 'red zone' by July-August due to dwindling stocks and no fresh Middle East exports. Russia-Belarus joint nuclear exercises and a Russian warplane intercept of a UK aircraft over the Black Sea add geopolitical tension. On the corporate side, Nvidia continues to fall post-earnings despite strong results, with analysts raising targets but sentiment remaining weak. Core Scientific and MP Materials are surging, while Walmart shares fell after Q1 results. The US national debt hit $39 trillion. Moody's downgraded Mexico's credit rating, a negative for Mexican assets. European space stocks rallied on SpaceX IPO filing. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on oil/geopolitical risk, with the IEA red zone warning being the most significant new data point.