WS #7890

The dominant narrative of escalating Iran/oil risk remains unchanged, with no counter-signals or de-escalation detected. However, several new developments have emerged in this window. The Trump administration postponed signing an AI executive order, citing concerns it could hinder US AI leadership, which is a positive for AI stocks broadly. Nvidia opened a $1.9 billion stake in Coherent, signaling a major bet on optical networking for AI data centers, bullish for NVDA and COHR. The US awarded $2 billion to quantum computing companies, including $1 billion to IBM, which is bullish for IBM. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine confirmed a strike on the Syzran oil refinery, and Iran and Oman are discussing a toll system for the Strait of Hormuz, while a new pipeline bypassing Hormuz is 50% complete—these are mixed signals for oil prices. SpaceX has officially filed for an IPO, which could be a major market event. Richmond Fed's Barkin questioned the Fed's ability to 'look through' supply shocks, a hawkish tilt. The AI startup Modal raised $355 million at a $4.65 billion valuation. Deutsche Bank was raided over late AML filing, a negative for DB. The prevailing Iran/oil narrative is ESCALATING, while the AI regulatory narrative is DE-ESCALATING (Trump postponing order).