WS #7909

The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis, with new developments in this window. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that any Iranian move to introduce a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz would make a diplomatic agreement impossible, while President Trump said negotiations are ongoing and Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. This is corroborated by multiple Polymarket contracts actively trading on Strait of Hormuz normalization and US-Iran peace deal timelines. A counter-signal emerged: the Dow logged its first record close in over three months, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished higher as oil prices fell on hopes of a US–Iran deal, suggesting some de-escalation optimism is being priced in. On the corporate side, several high-signal earnings reports were released after the close: Ross Stores (ROST) reported Q1 EPS of $2.02, beating by $0.30 on revenue of $6.01B, beating by $360M, and raised FY2026 guidance above estimates. Workday (WDAY) popped 9.5% after hours on Q1 results and guidance that topped estimates. Zoom Communications (ZM) beat Q1 estimates and raised FY2027 guidance. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) beat Q4 estimates and issued FY2027 sales guidance of $7.9B-$8.1B. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) beat Q4 estimates and issued FY2027 guidance above consensus. The Estée Lauder Companies and Puig ended merger discussions, with Estée Lauder reiterating confidence in its strategic vision. The Export-Import Bank of the United States approved a $2.9 billion loan for Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project, a high-signal development for critical minerals and defense supply chain. Overall, the Iran/Hormuz escalation is the highest-signal theme, with potential for oil price spikes and broad market impact, but the market is also pricing in de-escalation optimism.