WS #7912

From 499 msgs · 9 key-dev

The dominant narrative from this window is a wave of positive after-hours earnings reports and ASCO data releases, reinforcing the bullish sentiment from the previous cycle. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) beat FQ4 estimates with HOKA and UGG outperforming, driving the stock up ~4% after hours. Estée Lauder (EL) surged after walking away from merger talks with Puig, removing overhang. Perpetua Resources (PPTA) soared on a $2.9B EXIM loan for critical minerals. On the geopolitical front, a Ukrainian drone strike knocked out half the capacity at Russia's Lukoil-Kstovo refinery, adding to oil supply concerns. Separately, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is nearing a deal to re-enter Venezuela's oil sector, which could offset some supply tightness. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA tariffs were unlawful, triggering ~$149B in tariff refunds—a bullish counter-signal for importers and consumer stocks. ASCO data dominated biotech news, with Black Diamond Therapeutics (BDTX) reporting positive Phase 2 results for silevertinib in NSCLC, and Regeneron (REGN) showing 100% complete response in AL amyloidosis. Waymo halted freeway rides after robotaxis struggled in construction zones, a setback for autonomous driving. The US CDC restricted entry for travelers from DRC/Uganda/South Sudan due to Ebola, but risk to US public remains low. Overall, the earnings-driven positive sentiment and the Supreme Court tariff ruling are the strongest signals, while geopolitical developments remain stable but with an escalating drone campaign against Russian refineries.

Key developments

  • Deckers Outdoor beats FQ4 estimates as HOKA and UGG outperform
  • Estée Lauder walks away from merger talks with Puig, stock surges
  • Perpetua Resources secures $2.9B loan from US Export-Import Bank
  • Ukrainian drone strike knocks out half capacity at Russia's Lukoil-Kstovo refinery
  • Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs unlawful, orders $149B in refunds
  • Black Diamond Therapeutics reports positive Phase 2 results for silevertinib in NSCLC
  • Waymo halts freeway rides after robotaxis struggle in construction zones
  • Exxon Mobil nearing deal to re-enter Venezuela oil sector