WS #7922

The dominant theme in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Iran making statements on uranium and the Strait of Hormuz that have reversed earlier optimism from US-Iran talks, causing oil to rise after three days of declines. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, oilprice.com, Polymarket trades on Iran/Hormuz). Separately, Republicans are struggling to find votes to dismiss legislation compelling Trump to withdraw from the war with Iran, delaying votes into June — a slight escalation in political risk. On the corporate side, Target (TGT) beats estimates and hikes sales outlook, a positive signal for consumer discretionary. Morgan Stanley filed an amended S-1 for Ethereum and Solana ETFs, a bullish signal for crypto adoption. Ukraine continues to strike Russian oil refineries, with a drone attack on the Yaroslavl region, keeping energy supply risk elevated. The Kyle Busch death is not market-moving. The IMF staff-level deal with Togo and Argentina disbursement are low-significance. The AI boom in Asia-Pacific data centres is a medium-term positive for tech infrastructure. Overall, the Iran/Hormuz narrative is ESCALATING, with oil prices likely to remain supported.