WS #7941

The dominant macro theme remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, but this window shows several new developments that could shift market dynamics. The US and Iran have both signaled progress in peace talks, with the US stating 'good signs' are visible, though key disagreements persist over uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz tolls. This is corroborated by multiple sources (CNBC, Bloomberg, AP) and is reflected in European shares rising on guarded hopes for progress. However, Bloomberg warns oil may hit new highs if Hormuz doesn't reopen, and Barclays maintains a $100 Brent forecast with upside risks. Separately, the US has raised threats of military action against Cuba, and Trump announced sending 5,000 more troops to Poland, stirring confusion about US presence in Europe. On the corporate front, OpenAI reported $57B in Q1 revenue, leading Anthropic by $1B, a significant data point for AI sector valuations. UK retail sales fell at the fastest pace in nearly a year due to the Iran energy shock, and UK government borrowing hit the highest April level in six years. The narrative arc on Iran is STABLE but with incremental diplomatic progress; the Strait resolution being 'almost fully priced' suggests limited upside surprise left, but the risk of oil spikes remains if talks fail.