WS #7947
The dominant theme remains the Iran crisis, with multiple signals indicating both escalation and potential de-escalation. Iran's Supreme Leader ordered near-weapons-grade uranium to stay in Iran, while Trump reportedly halted an Iran attack during Hajj after Gulf warnings. The Strait of Hormuz saw 35 vessels transit in 24 hours, suggesting some normalization. OPEC+ is expected to approve a 188,000 bpd production increase at its June 7 meeting, which could counter oil supply fears. Economists raised US inflation estimates and pushed out Fed rate cut timelines due to Iran war price shocks. Retail earnings showed dispersion: BJ's Wholesale Club beat estimates, while Walmart customers are buying less gas, indicating consumer stress. IBM received a $1B quantum computing grant from the Commerce Department. Russia sent more nukes to Belarus, escalating geopolitical tensions. The EU condemned Russia's intimidation of Baltic states. A potential UAE exit from OPEC was reported, which could reshape oil markets. The Ebola outbreak in Uganda is stable with 82 confirmed cases. Overall, the Iran crisis is the central market driver, with mixed signals on escalation vs. de-escalation.
Key developments
- Iran's Supreme Leader orders near-weapons-grade uranium to stay in Iran
- Trump halts Iran attack during Hajj after warnings from Gulf allies
- OPEC+ expected to approve 188,000 bpd production increase at June 7 meeting
- Economists raise US inflation estimates, push out Fed rate cut timeline due to Iran war
- Commerce Department awards $2B in quantum computing grants to nine companies including IBM
- Russia sends more nuclear weapons to Belarus, escalating tensions
- UAE considering exit from OPEC for past three years, according to advisor
- BJ's Wholesale Club beats Q1 estimates, initiates FY24 outlook