WS #7962

From 499 msgs · 7 key-dev

The stagflation narrative continues to dominate, with the University of Michigan sentiment final May reading confirming a record low of 44.8 and inflation expectations rising (1-yr 4.8%, 5-10yr 3.9%). This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, DeepDive, Seeking Alpha). Fed Governor Waller's hawkish comments, supporting a potential rate hike over a cut due to the Iran war energy shock, are also widely reported (Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha). The GameStop-eBay M&A story is confirmed by Bloomberg, with GameStop seeking shareholder approval for a massive share increase to fund the acquisition. AMD shares are rising after CEO Lisa Su forecast >35% annual CPU market growth over five years on AI demand. The Iran war continues to impact oil markets, with the IEA warning of a 'red zone' by August and Australia planning for fuel rationing. The Turkey political risk theme is stable but repeated. The Ebola outbreak in DR Congo risk was raised to 'very high' by WHO, but global risk remains low. Overall, the narrative is ESCALATING on stagflation/hawkish Fed, with no counter-signals to the prevailing bearish macro thesis.

Key developments

  • University of Michigan sentiment final May reading hits record low 44.8, inflation expectations rise
  • Fed Governor Waller supports making clear next rate move as likely a hike as a cut
  • GameStop seeks shareholder approval for massive share increase to fund eBay acquisition
  • AMD CEO Lisa Su forecasts >35% annual CPU market growth over five years on AI demand
  • IEA warns oil markets enter 'red zone' by August; Australia plans fuel rationing
  • Turkey tightens institutional grip after court rules Erdogan opposition removal
  • WHO raises Ebola risk to 'very high' in DR Congo; global risk remains low