WS #7972

The dominant narrative from the previous window—Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair with hawkish rate expectations—is further reinforced by a new Axios report quoting Trump telling Warsh 'don't look at me, don't look at anybody,' which strengthens the independence narrative and hawkish stance. This is ESCALATING. The Strait of Hormuz closure remains a key geopolitical risk, with Polymarket contracts still trading on its reopening timeline and oil prices wobbling on the impasse. A significant cross-source corroborated signal is Trafigura withdrawing hundreds of millions of dollars of copper from LME warehouses, reported by Bloomberg and multiple social media sources, indicating tight copper supply and potential upward pressure on copper prices. On the corporate front, Microsoft agreed to pay $250 million to settle the Activision shareholder lawsuit, a minor positive removing legal overhang. Uber is reportedly evaluating a takeover of Delivery Hero, which could impact Uber's stock. Micron started advanced DRAM production in Virginia, bullish for MU and AI chip supply. The US withdrawal from Ukraine peace negotiations is confirmed by multiple sources, maintaining geopolitical tensions. The Alberta separatist movement is gaining attention with the Canadian PM calling Alberta 'essential,' but a judge ruled the secession initiative invalid, a counter-signal to the separatist thesis. The IEA's reserve release offer from the previous window continues to act as a counter-signal to oil supply fears.