WS #8013

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict, with Ukrainian drones hitting Russian oil ports and refineries, and a drone debris fire at an oil terminal in Novorossiysk. This directly threatens Russian oil export infrastructure, reinforcing the bullish oil narrative. The IEA's 'red zone' warning from the previous window is now being corroborated by actual supply disruptions. Separately, a blast at a New York City shipyard killed 1 and injured 36, which could pressure local infrastructure and shipping stocks. The SpaceX Starship anomaly is now stale and not repeated. The Iran ceasefire theme remains stable with no new data. The Tulsi Gabbard resignation is confirmed but has limited market impact. Overall, the oil supply risk is escalating due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.