WS #8039
The US-Iran situation remains the dominant market narrative, with a notable shift toward de-escalation in this window. Multiple sources corroborate that President Trump told CBS News the US is 'getting a lot closer' to an agreement with Iran, and Axios reports he will meet advisers to decide on Sunday. Qatar's emir held a call with Trump discussing Pakistan-led de-escalation, and the UAE announced a pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is nearly 50% complete. These signals collectively reduce the probability of renewed military strikes in the near term, which would be bullish for risk assets and bearish for oil. However, countervailing signals persist: an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon killed 5, and Russia is preparing a strike on Ukraine using the Oreshnik missile. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on the US-Iran front, but the Ukraine-Russia energy war continues to escalate with Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil terminals. In corporate news, Delivery Hero confirmed a takeover offer from Uber at €33/share, and spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.26 billion in outflows last week. The TSLA buyer activity note is a minor positive for Tesla.
Key developments
- Trump says US 'getting a lot closer' to Iran deal; decision expected Sunday
- Qatar emir calls Trump on Iran de-escalation; UAE pipeline bypassing Hormuz nearly 50% complete
- Russia preparing strike on Ukraine with Oreshnik missile; Ukrainian drones hit Russian oil terminals
- Delivery Hero confirms takeover offer from Uber at €33/share
- Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $1.26 billion in worst week since late January
- TSLA buyers active as Tesla delivers most vehicles in Q, improves customer satisfaction