WS #8067

The dominant signal in this window is President Trump's announcement that a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has been 'largely negotiated' and will include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Daily Wire, Al Jazeera, Axios, CoinDesk) and has already moved bitcoin sharply higher from ~$74,000 to $76,700. The deal, if finalized, would be a major de-escalation of the Iran conflict, directly countering the prevailing bearish thesis on energy and geopolitical risk. However, the deal is still 'subject to finalization' and faces hawkish pushback from Senator Lindsey Graham. Separately, Ukraine and the US embassy warn of a potentially major Russian airstrike in the next 24 hours, and a Ukrainian drone attack has caused a fire at a Russian oil terminal. These developments are escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ECB warning on euro stablecoin rules is a secondary signal for crypto and banking sectors.