WS #8103

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, with the narrative ESCALATING in hawkishness. Trump stated negotiations are proceeding in an 'orderly and constructive manner' and that an agreement is 'largely negotiated,' but he also told Netanyahu he will not sign a final deal without complete dismantlement of Iran's enrichment capabilities and removal of all enriched uranium. This hardens the US stance, reducing the probability of a near-term deal and keeping oil supply risk elevated. Iran has officially rejected transferring its enriched uranium stockpile abroad, a key US demand, further complicating talks. Separately, Russia launched a major overnight missile strike on Kyiv, hitting the Cabinet of Ministers building, and Ukrainian drones struck a key Russian pipeline pumping station. These geopolitical events add to market uncertainty but are secondary to the Iran narrative. The S&P 500 futures gapped up 110 points, with the index on track for a 13th consecutive green close, suggesting strong momentum despite geopolitical headwinds. Nvidia is outperforming Bitcoin by the largest margin in nearly a decade, highlighting AI capex demand. The IEA reported that one in four cars sold in 2025 were electric, supporting the EV theme.