WS #8116

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran deal narrative, which is now showing signs of DE-ESCALATION despite earlier optimism. Multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, MarketWatch, OilPrice.com) report that the US and Iran are nearing a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump stating there's 'no rush.' However, Iran's military advisor Rezaei warned of NPT withdrawal if a 'hostile invasion' occurs in the Persian Gulf, and Iran's Tasnim news agency indicated the deal may still be canceled. This creates a mixed signal: the market is pricing in a deal (S&P 500 perpetual futures hit ATH on Hyperliquid), but Iranian hardliners are pushing back. Separately, Ukraine struck a major Russian oil pumping station supplying Moscow Oblast, and satellite imagery shows significant damage to the Ryazan Oil Refinery. These strikes could tighten Russian fuel supply and support oil prices. The AI race narrative continues with NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra announcement, but this is not new in this window. Overall, the Iran deal remains the key variable: if confirmed, it would be bullish for equities and bearish for oil; if it collapses, the reverse.