WS #8128

The dominant signal in this window is a significant escalation in the US-Iran deal narrative, with Trump instructing negotiators 'not to rush' into a deal, contradicting weekend reports that an agreement was close. This introduces uncertainty into the previously bullish Gulf market and oil price outlook. Simultaneously, Russia launched one of its largest attacks on Kyiv since the war began, using hundreds of drones and missiles including the Oreshnik hypersonic missile, causing casualties and damage. This escalation in Ukraine counters any de-escalation narrative from the Iran talks. The combination of a delayed Iran deal and intensified Ukraine conflict supports elevated oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums. Crypto markets are rallying on the back of Iran deal hopes, with Bitcoin bouncing to $77,000, but the Trump statement may temper this. Ebola outbreak in DRC is driving volatility in diagnostics stocks (CODX +36.7%, OSUR +9.7%).