WS #8151

The dominant signal in this window is the U.S.-Iran deal narrative, which is now corroborated by multiple high-credibility sources (CNBC, Axios, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, OilPrice.com) and is driving a clear risk-on move. Oil prices are falling sharply (WTI -4.69% to $92.07, Brent -4.66% to $98.72) on hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5%, Nasdaq futures +0.65%, and VIX is down 3.07%. Gold is gaining as inflation concerns temper. However, a counter-signal exists: Trump has told negotiators 'not to rush,' and OilPrice.com reports the deal is 'delayed,' suggesting the final agreement is not imminent and could still collapse. This creates a tug-of-war between the risk-on impulse and lingering uncertainty. The narrative arc is ESCALATING toward a deal, but with a notable counter-signal from Trump's directive. Separately, European gas storage concerns persist: Equinor warns Europe could face a critical shortfall if Hormuz disruption continues 1-3 more months, though gas prices are dropping on deal optimism. The U.S.-Iran peace deal narrative is the primary market mover, with oil, equities, and gold all reacting.