WS #8165

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran peace deal, which is escalating positively. Multiple sources corroborate that the US and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing confidence in reaching an agreement. This has driven a sharp market reaction: Asia markets rallied (Nikkei surged 3% to fresh record highs), oil prices plunged below $100, and emerging-market assets rose. The Carlyle Group's Jeff Currie warned that oil markets are at 'tank bottoms' in Asia, with Europe next and the US potentially facing shortages by July, underscoring the severity of the supply crunch that a deal would alleviate. Counter-signals include ongoing drone attacks on Russian regions and a surface-to-air missile fired at an Israeli jet over Lebanon, indicating regional tensions persist. Additionally, Huawei claims a breakthrough in chipmaking that could narrow its technology gap with TSMC, which could impact semiconductor supply chains. The AI boom continues to drive momentum stocks to record highs, per Bloomberg. A bearish signal for Google emerged: a short thesis citing $190B capex crushing FCF yield to ~2% and ROIC slumping.