WS #8224

The dominant signal in this window is a fresh escalation in the Israel-Iran-Hezbollah conflict. Multiple Bluesky posts report that Israel launched 'Operation Arrows of Fire' against Hezbollah, with schools closing in northern Israel and Beirut evacuating. Al Jazeera reports Israel will intensify its Lebanon offensive to 'crush' Hezbollah. An Iranian official has warned Washington that Israeli attacks on Beirut could derail diplomatic efforts. This follows the prior frame of US-Iran tensions and ceasefire fragility. The narrative arc is ESCALATING. No counter-signals (e.g., de-escalation announcements) are present. Separately, a Bluesky post reports that IDF spokesperson says Israeli operation 'Sunrise of the Lions' struck strategic targets in Iran, and reports of blasts in southern Iran. Oil prices (WTI -6.52%, Brent -7.15%) are already reflecting the escalation, but the new operational announcement could sustain or deepen the move. Other items (Bolivia salary cuts, Pope AI encyclical, AI math breakthroughs, META technical analysis, GME/EBAY speculation) are noise or non-market-moving. The prior frame's Iran ceasefire breakdown and Qatar mediation remain unchanged but are not repeated as no new data points emerged.