WS #8321

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting heavy Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killing 31 on day 89 of the war, and a separate analysis showing Strait of Hormuz vessel flows down 93% with oil spreads exceeding $40/bbl. This is corroborated by Al Jazeera, BBC, and a Kapu Labs analysis, indicating a structural rupture in oil markets. The narrative arc for the Iran conflict is ESCALATING, reinforcing the bullish oil/bearish risk thesis. Separately, Ken Paxton's decisive defeat of John Cornyn in the Texas Senate primary is a major political development with implications for the 2026 midterms and potential for a Democratic flip. On the corporate side, Marvell Technology (MRVL) is set to report Q1 earnings today, with analysts expecting 79 cents per share and the stock up 6.1% on Tuesday. The BP chair ousting continues to generate headlines but is not new. The BOJ's total asset balance fell 9.1% in fiscal 2025, a hawkish signal from Japan. China is delaying Airbus deliveries, a trade friction signal. The prevailing macro narrative is Iran war escalation and oil supply disruption, with the Texas primary adding a political dimension.