WS #8326
The dominant narrative remains the Iran conflict and oil supply disruption, but this window shows a clear de-escalation signal: oil prices fell sharply (WTI -4.14%, Brent -3.48%) as traders bet on a US-Iran deal, corroborated by AP reporting that Trump is gathering his cabinet to seal a deal to end the war. Treasury yields also fell on optimism. However, US self-defense strikes in southern Iran and Iranian accusations of a 'gross violation' of the ceasefire introduce counter-risk. Separately, Nvidia announced plans to spend $150 billion annually in Taiwan and build a new campus, driving Taiwan chip stocks to record highs and reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout theme. IREN secured a $1.6B Dell deal for Blackwell systems, boosting its AI cloud revenue outlook. Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia both beat earnings estimates. The previous synthesis's key developments (Goldman target, SK Hynix/Micron milestones, ECB warning, Spanish police raid) carry forward as ongoing. The narrative arc for the Iran conflict is DE-ESCALATING (oil price drop on deal hopes) but with a counter-signal of continued US strikes.
Key developments
- Oil prices drop 4% as traders bet on US-Iran peace deal; Trump gathers cabinet to seal deal
- Nvidia plans $150B annual spending in Taiwan, new campus; Taiwan chip stocks hit record
- IREN signs $1.6B Dell deal for Blackwell systems, AI cloud revenue outlook boosted
- Bank of Montreal Q2 EPS $3.67 beats $3.45 estimate, sales beat
- Bank of Nova Scotia Q2 EPS C$2.02 beats C$2.00 estimate, revenue beat
- ByteDance mulls up to $70B in capex for AI infrastructure
- Treasury yields fall on Iran peace deal optimism
- Marvell Technology surges 6% pre-market ahead of Q1 earnings