WS #8396

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran military confrontation, which is ESCALATING. Despite earlier hopes for diplomacy that briefly pushed oil prices down 5%, new US airstrikes in southern Iran targeting a military site threatening the Strait of Hormuz were confirmed by a US official (ABC News, CNBC, multiple Bluesky sources). An exchange of fire was reported between US and Iranian forces in the Strait, with Iranian state media claiming a US tanker was hit. This directly contradicts any ceasefire optimism and reinforces the prior window's escalation. Oil prices are likely to rebound sharply. Separately, Salesforce reported earnings that beat estimates but issued light full-year guidance, citing AI disruption fears, which is bearish for CRM and tech broadly. Snowflake surged 36% on an earnings beat and plans to spend $6 billion on Amazon cloud, a bullish signal for SNOW and AMZN. The DOJ launched a criminal investigation into E. Jean Carroll for perjury, a political development with limited direct market impact. The Bank of Korea (BOK) signaled it is assessing inflationary pressure and may consider rate hikes, which is bearish for Korean equities and the KOSPI. Australia Q1 capex data showed strong plant/machinery investment (+18.1% QoQ), a positive signal for the Australian economy and commodity demand. Nio surged 9% on the launch of its ES9 SUV, a bullish signal for NIO. The CFTC filing to erase a Gemini settlement (from prior window) remains a positive for crypto sentiment. The dominant theme is ESCALATING US-Iran conflict, with oil prices likely to rise, benefiting energy stocks (XOM, CVX) and pressuring airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer sectors.