WS #8412

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with fresh military strikes overnight, as multiple sources (AP, Al Jazeera, Axios, social media) report US strikes on an Iranian military site near Bandar Abbas and Iran's IRGC retaliating against a US airbase. The ceasefire that was not holding has effectively collapsed. Oil prices are rising (WTI +2.5%, Brent elevated) on renewed hostilities, with Polymarket contracts showing bets on WTI above $95 and continued trading on Iran-related outcomes. The ECB's Financial Stability Review warns of elevated vulnerabilities from the geoeconomic shock, and Fed's Kashkari signaled potential rate hikes if the Iran war persists. Separately, Snowflake surged on strong earnings and a raised forecast, while Nebius popped 11% on a stake disclosure by an ex-OpenAI fund. The dominant theme is US-Iran conflict escalation, which is bearish for equities, bullish for oil, and negative for airlines and consumer stocks. The narrative is ESCALATING.