WS #8417
The dominant macro theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump threatened military action against Oman over Hormuz control, while Iran continues to assert sovereignty. The April PCE inflation data confirmed the stagflationary backdrop: headline PCE at 3.8% YoY (as expected), core at 3.3%, with Fed's Williams noting near-term inflation around 4% and supply chain disruptions from the war. Oil remains elevated near $100, with Polymarket showing active trading on 'WTI Crude Oil hit $100 in May' and 'fewer than 25 ships transit Hormuz' contracts. The narrative is ESCALATING. Separately, several stock-specific signals emerged: Wix laying off ~20% of workforce (bearish for tech/Israel), Teladoc rising on Walmart partnership, Innventure tumbling on short seller report, XPeng warning on memory chip and battery cost pressures, and Cameco restoring full production at McArthur River after flood disruption (bullish for uranium/CCJ). Apple is reportedly renewing push for on-device AI, a positive for AAPL. The macro stagflationary shock from the Iran conflict remains the primary market-moving force, with oil-sensitive sectors and inflation expectations dominating.
Key developments
- Trump threatens to 'blow up' Oman over Strait of Hormuz control
- April PCE inflation matches expectations at 3.8% YoY, core 3.3%
- Fed's Williams says near-term inflation around 4%, supply chain disruptions from war
- Wix laying off ~20% of workforce, citing AI and exchange rates
- Teladoc rises after Walmart partnership announcement
- Innventure tumbles after short seller report from Morpheus Research
- XPeng warns memory chip costs and battery inflation pressuring margins
- Cameco restores full production at McArthur River and Key Lake after flood disruption