WS #8422

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmed US-Iran 60-day ceasefire MOU, now awaiting Trump's final approval. Multiple high-credibility sources (Axios, Alpaca, Seeking Alpha, multiple Bluesky accounts, and Polymarket trade patterns) corroborate that negotiators have agreed on a framework that would open the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US blockade of Iranian ports, and unfreeze $12bn in Iranian assets. This directly counters the escalation narrative from earlier this week when US strikes on Iran pushed oil toward $100. Oil prices are already reacting negatively, with crude futures falling sharply on the news. Separately, Snowflake surged 35% on an AI-driven earnings beat and $6bn Amazon compute deal, lifting the software sector. The US-Iran narrative is now DE-ESCALATING pending Trump's decision, which is the key catalyst for oil, energy, and broader markets in the next 1-8 hours. Counter-signals: Bessent's simultaneous threat to penalize any partners facilitating tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, and new US strikes on Iran near Bandar Abbas, introduce uncertainty that could delay or derail the deal.