WS #8492

The dominant signal in this window is a tentative US-Iran 60-day ceasefire extension, reported by Al Jazeera and corroborated by Bloomberg and multiple social media sources. The draft MOU includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade, which would directly counter the ongoing oil supply crisis and weigh on crude prices. This development is ESCALATING from prior ceasefire chatter to a formal framework, though Trump's final approval is pending. Separately, Fed's Schmid delivered a hawkish speech in Reykjavik, calling inflation 'too hot' and dismissing transitory views, while noting oil is weighing on spending power. This reinforces rate-hike expectations and dampens risk appetite. Bitcoin ETF outflows hit a record nine-day streak ($2.8B), with BTC sliding to $73,500, diverging from record-chasing US equities. Japan confirmed a record $73B yen intervention in April-May, signaling continued FX volatility. KOSPI broke out to an all-time high (+3.55%) on AI-memory bid, led by Samsung and SK Hynix. The Russian drone strike on a Romanian apartment building (NATO member) is escalating, with NATO pledging to defend 'every inch' of territory, but this is a carry-forward from prior windows with no new material escalation beyond the initial incident.