WS #8496

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran ceasefire optimism, which is ESCALATING with concrete deal details emerging. Oil prices are falling sharply on hopes of Strait of Hormuz reopening, with Brent crude heading for its biggest monthly decline since 2020. However, counter-signals persist: Chevron CEO confirms ships were attacked in the Strait this week and warns July/August are critical for oil inventories, while Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf states they gain concessions through missiles, not talks, and have no trust in guarantees. Ukraine struck the Volgograd refinery and Yaroslavl pumping station overnight, adding supply-side risk. Separately, Dell Technologies surged 37% premarket on blockbuster Q1 earnings and raised guidance, driving sympathy moves in HPE and SMCI. Replimune surged 60%+ on plans to resubmit RP1 BLA. iHeartMedia fell 12% on stalled SiriusXM merger talks. Bitcoin ETFs saw a record 9th consecutive day of outflows, losing $2.8B. The Blue Origin New Glenn rocket explosion is devastating for the US space industry. Canada Q1 GDP stagnated at 0% Q/Q. German CPI inflation fell to 2.6% in May, below expectations. The EU fined Temu €200M for selling illegal items. Meta is considering entering the cloud services market. The US designated Brazil's two largest gangs as terrorist organizations. In this window, the US-Iran ceasefire narrative continues to dominate, with oil prices plunging 19% in May. However, new counter-signals emerged: Chevron CEO warned of oil price jumps over summer as supplies dwindle, and Israeli forces crossed the Litani River into Lebanon, escalating Middle East tensions. The Bank of England's Bailey signaled no rush to raise rates, tolerating above-target inflation due to Iran war uncertainty. Fed's Bowman echoed a similar dovish tone, saying the Fed can look through temporary energy shocks. Canada slipped into a technical recession with Q1 GDP contracting 0.1% Q/Q. On the corporate front, Dell's blowout earnings continue to drive hardware stocks, with Susquehanna raising Micron price target to $1,750. SoFi surged 13% on stablecoin rollout. Talkspace shareholders approved acquisition by UHS. Scotiabank to acquire MapleMark Bank. ByteDance is developing new AI chips similar to Nvidia's Groq, potentially reducing reliance on US exports. A Russian drone struck a residential building in Romania, escalating NATO tensions. The WHO put Ebola outbreak death rate at 30-50% in DRC.