WS #8521

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran nuclear deal narrative, with multiple sources reporting that the US and Iran are closing in on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said he is making a 'final determination' on a preliminary ceasefire extension, while Iran's Baghaei stated control of the Strait must be jointly decided by Iran and Oman. A reported agreement includes an immediate $12B payment from frozen assets. This is corroborated by Polymarket trades showing heavy betting on a deal by May 31. The WTO, IEA, IMF, and World Bank met to discuss the economic impacts of the Middle East war, warning that if shipping flows don't normalize, oil inventory depletion will pose risks. Oil and gas shares are trading lower on the optimism, while tech stocks continue to rally on AI catalysts. Separately, Blue Origin's rocket explosion is impacting Amazon's satellite plans, causing AMZN to dip. A large dark pool order for MU ($219M) and a massive NVDA call block ($9.5M) signal institutional conviction in AI/semiconductors. The Freedom 250 concert series is facing mass cancellations, but this is noise for markets.