WS #8605

The dominant signal in this window is Iran's reassertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by Al Jazeera and corroborated by a breaking news post on Bluesky. This escalates the ongoing crisis, as Iran warns foreign vessels must obtain permission from the IRGC Navy or face targeting. The US has warned Iran against nuclear weapons development, and a secret US report indicates Israel is lobbying the US to kill Iran's lead negotiator and restart strikes on oil infrastructure. These developments increase the risk of a military confrontation that could disrupt global oil supplies. Separately, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure continue, with a drone attack reported on a refinery in the Rostov region. The Pentagon is reportedly analyzing an accelerated withdrawal of US troops from Europe, which could weaken NATO's deterrent posture and encourage Russian aggression. On the corporate front, a short thesis on Google (GOOGL) was posted, citing EU fine risk and AI capex pressure, while a bearish view on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was expressed due to talc litigation. The US jobs report is expected to show solid growth, but this is a preview rather than a market-moving release. Most other data (sports, entertainment, local news) is noise.