WS #8649

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict, with Israeli forces making a historic push inside Lebanon and devastating airstrikes on Tyre, as reported by AP, Al Jazeera, and multiple Bluesky sources. This complicates the US-Iran ceasefire deal narrative, as the conflict widens. Simultaneously, oil market dynamics show Brent crude falling ~17% in a month to ~$91, despite ongoing US-Iran strikes, suggesting the market is pricing in a deal. However, France's Foreign Minister stated reopening the Strait of Hormuz is essential, and 29 of 109 large oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf have passed through the chokepoint, per Bloomberg. Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian refineries, hitting Saratov and Rostov facilities. The aluminum market is being squeezed by Middle East conflict and US tariffs. Arm's CEO is in line for a potential $800M bonus if the chipmaker hits trillion-dollar valuation targets. OpenAI's Greg Brockman steps out of the shadows as IPO nears. Berkshire's Abel is trimming a $650M position while sitting on $397B cash, signaling caution.