WS #8733

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions. Multiple sources (BBC, NBC, Alpaca, Bluesky) corroborate that Iran has halted diplomatic communications with the US and vowed to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, citing ongoing ceasefire violations in Lebanon and Gaza. This represents a significant escalation from the previous stalemate. American crude oil prices surged over 5% immediately following the announcement, and oil & gas stocks are trading higher. The situation is further inflamed by reports of a tanker explosion near Umm Qasr, Iraq, and rocket alerts in northern Israel. No counter-signals (ceasefire extensions, diplomatic breakthroughs) are present in this window. Separately, Nvidia announced its RTX Spark Arm-based PC chip at Computex, causing Intel stock to plunge 5% and Arm stock to pop. Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Taylor Morrison for $8.5B, sending TMHC up 22.5%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 54.0 vs 53.2, indicating manufacturing expansion. Florida sued OpenAI and Sam Altman, accusing them of putting profit over safety.